Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 331 km/s at 16/1516Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0707Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 382 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (19 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 071 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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