Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/0442Z from Region 2781 (S25E55). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov,
06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 370 km/s at 04/0544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 088 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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