Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 490km/s at 01/1914Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
01/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/2217Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 01/0655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 594 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 104 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 10% | 10% |
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