Viewing archive of Monday, 30 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec,
03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 30/2045Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 30/0718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
30/0718Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 30/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 786 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and
quiet levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 109 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/012-011/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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