Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 546 km/s at 27/1429Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
27/1537Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1659 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (28 Dec, 30 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 088 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 006/005-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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Latest forum messages
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