Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1800Z from Region 2804 (N21W74). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar)
and expected to be very low on day three (02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 26/2206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1628 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (01 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 079 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 080/078/074 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 006/005-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 40% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTJuneau, AK
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