Viewing archive of Friday, 26 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb,
28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/2140Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 26/1406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/1254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6369 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Feb, 28 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 080 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 009/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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