Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/0359Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 24/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 25/1221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5101 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (27 Mar) and active levels on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 079 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 080/080/075 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 016/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 007/008-006/005-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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