Viewing archive of Friday, 26 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 26/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1507 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 Mar, 29 Mar)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 080 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 079/077/076 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 018/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 008/010-020/025-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 60% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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