Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 27/1849Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 888 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 080 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 078/077/077 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 020/025-015/018-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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