Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0646Z from Region 2804 (N18W87). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Mar) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 28/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 078 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 078/074/074 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 010/012-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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