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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 01/0902Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 01/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 01/0307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1074 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 071 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 071/071/070 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 017/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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