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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 01/0902Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 01/0307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1074 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Mar 071
  Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 071/071/070
  90 Day Mean        01 Mar 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Mar  017/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  014/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%40%30%

All times in UTC

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