Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 02/2038Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 02/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/1332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 605 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 075 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/018-008/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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