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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 16/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3681 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 079
  Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  006/005-008/008-016/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%40%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%30%55%

All times in UTC

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