Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 16/2331Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
17/1640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1431Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5873 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (19 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 078 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 078/078/076 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-009/012-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 50% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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