Viewing archive of Monday, 26 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0230Z from Region 2816 (S22W79). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 26/1829Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 26/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 26/0219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 351 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 080 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 080/078/078 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 016/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M8.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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