Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr,
29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 27/1942Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 27/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 541 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Apr, 29 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 079 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 006/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M8.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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