Viewing archive of Monday, 24 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (25 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 23/2248Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1262 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 May), active to
major storm levels on day two (26 May) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (27 May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 073 Predicted 25 May-27 May 073/073/072 90 Day Mean 24 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 011/018-028/048-015/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 80% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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