Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
May, 27 May, 28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 25/1922Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1531 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (26 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (28 May).
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 084 Predicted 26 May-28 May 082/082/078 90 Day Mean 25 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 028/042-015/022-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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