Viewing archive of Monday, 21 June 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 20/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 21/1758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/2111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3330 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 079 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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