Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (28 Jul) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 336 km/s at 27/2053Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
27/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
27/1255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 410 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 080 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 080/078/078 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 010/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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