Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 July 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 28/2028Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 28/1038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/0151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jul 079
  Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 080/078/078
  90 Day Mean        28 Jul 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jul  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  010/012-008/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%25%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%20%30%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.78nT).

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