Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 28/2028Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 28/1038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
28/0151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 079 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 080/078/078 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 010/012-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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