Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1449Z from Region 2859 (N19E32). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 24/2035Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/2026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Aug, 27 Aug)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 081 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 012/015-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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