Viewing archive of Monday, 23 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 23 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2021 RTDIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a B2 event observed at
23/0113Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug,
25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 304 km/s at 22/2221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Aug), and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 Aug and 26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 078 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 008/008-008/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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