Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/1020Z from Region 2859 (N19E59). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Aug,
24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 21/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 077 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 077/077/076 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 008/008-008/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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