Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/2200Z from new Region 2859. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Aug,
23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 356 km/s at 21/0832Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
21/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/1314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Aug, 23 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 077 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 008/008-008/010-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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