Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Sep,
25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 23/1621Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1247 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(26 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 090 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 090/092/095 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 011/015-007/008-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M8.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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