Viewing archive of Friday, 24 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/0701Z from Region 2871 (S28E01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep,
26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 24/0830Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (26 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 088 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 088/086/082 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 009/010-011/018-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 70% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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