Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/1917Z from Region 2871 (S28W13). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 25/0443Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 088
  Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 088/086/086
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  011/018-020/028-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm35%40%05%
Major-severe storm10%20%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm70%75%25%

All times in UTC

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