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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1504Z from Region 2961 (S13W55). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 06/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/1515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10194 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (09 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 118 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 118/118/116 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 011/010-005/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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