Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1201Z from Region 3200 (N21W15). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 28/1212Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/2306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 588 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 138
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 135/145/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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