Viewing archive of Friday, 24 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
24/2030Z from Region 3229 (N25W32). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 23/2334Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 437 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Feb, 26 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 164 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 008/008-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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