Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 February 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 25/1944Z from Region 3229 (N25W46). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 24/2252Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 25/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/1746Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 25/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 966 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (27 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (28 Feb). Protons are expected to be above threshold as a 10 MeV proton event is in progress.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 152
  Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  013/020-026/036-018/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%30%40%
Minor storm30%40%25%
Major-severe storm05%25%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm70%79%65%

All times in UTC

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