Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/1200Z from Region 3235 (N19W34). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 26/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 26/2058Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 26/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (27 Feb), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (01 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(27 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 159 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 037/056-020/032-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 75% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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