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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0057Z from Region 3263 (N17W12). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 25/1824Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/0219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 24/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 662 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 160
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 165/160/155
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 172

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  040/072
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  016/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  015/020-014/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm25%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%50%30%

All times in UTC

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