Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0057Z from Region 3263 (N17W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 25/1824Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 25/0219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
24/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 662 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 160 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 040/072 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 015/020-014/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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