Viewing archive of Friday, 24 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1340Z from Region 3259 (S21W05). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 24/1114Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 23/2312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (25 Mar), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (27 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 158 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 160/165/160 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 028/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 035/062 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 020/030-015/020-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M8.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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