Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 22/2109Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 23/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 23/1859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Mar), active to
minor storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 151 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 023/044 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 024/035-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 65% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M8.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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