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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
20/2230Z from Region 3281 (S22W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr,
24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 21/2036Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 21/1836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1815Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Apr, 23 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 151 Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 21 Apr 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 014/016-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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