Viewing archive of Monday, 30 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/1207Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 30/2059Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
30/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 997 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 136 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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