Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0614Z from Region 3235 (N19E08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 23/0654Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 22/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 22/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1008 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Feb, 26 Feb)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 148 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 148/146/146 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 011/012-008/010-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/23 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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