Viewing archive of Friday, 17 February 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Feb 17 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Feb 2023	159	013
18 Feb 2023	154	028
19 Feb 2023	151	013

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C9.1 flare, peaking at 21:16 UT February 16. This was associated newly numbered NOAA AR 3229, which has rotated onto the solar disk over the north east limb. This region was responsible for much of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3226 was stable and quiet over the period. The remaining regions on the solar disk are all relatively simple and have not produced any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely, M-class flares possible and a small chance for X-class flares.

The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday, visible in LASCO C2 from 10:48 UT to the north west February 16 may have a glancing blow at Earth predicted for late on February 18. No other new Earth directed CMEs have were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

A small positive polarity equatorial coronal hole began to transverse the central meridian on February 17.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) were enhanced over the last 24 hours with transition from ICME influences to reflect a possible high-speed stream influence, for which the coronal hole was not clearly visible. The solar wind speed ranged between from 420 Km/s and 560 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was around 20 nT at the start of the period, before gradually decreasing to values near 5nT. Bz had a minimum value of -12nT at 14:05 UT February 16. The high-speed stream is expected to continue to affect the Earth environment over the next days. The interplanetary magnetic field is also expected to become enhanced again from late on February 17 into February 18, due to a combination of two predicted ICME arrivals.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels locally (local K-Bel) and minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp) between 15:00 and 18:00 UT. The conditions then decreased to quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period. Active to minor storm (possibly major) conditions are likely from February 18 due to the predicted CME arrivals.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	141
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	108 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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