Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/1338Z from Region 3315 (S17W48). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 414 km/s at 30/1839Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
30/1258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/1838Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 521 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 May, 01 Jun) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (02 Jun). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 162 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 30 May 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 006/005-006/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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