Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/0438Z from Region 3323 (S05E68). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 30/2121Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
31/1947Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 653 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (02 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 161 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 31 May 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 006/005-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 65% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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