Viewing archive of Monday, 31 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/0900Z from Region 3390 (S20E34). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03
Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 30/2345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
31/0238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/0417Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 30/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 935 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Aug, 02
Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Aug). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 177 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 018/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 023/030-014/018-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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