Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
01/0657Z from Region 3380 (S10W55). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (02 Aug,
03 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 31/2128Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/1726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/1614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2013 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (03 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (04
Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 175 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 014/018-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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