Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
01/0657Z from Region 3380 (S10W55). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (02 Aug,
03 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 31/2128Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/1726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/1614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2013 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (03 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (04
Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 175 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 014/018-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 488AR 13901 90Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1245Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76The Rotations of AR 13780 and AR 13902 1
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |