Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1931Z from Region 3429 (N10E05). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep,
17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 14/1433Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 14/1750Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
14/1737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 411 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet levels on day
two (16 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 145 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 145/148/145 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 013/015-007/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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