Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
11/0937Z from Region 3451 (N16W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct,
14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 447 km/s at 11/1055Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/0244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 219 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 158 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 158/156/155 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct NA/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 011/012-009/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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