Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
06/2144Z from Region 3513 (N19E53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec,
10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 615 km/s at 06/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1064 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 135 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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