Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 06/0541Z from Region 3513 (N19E53). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 06/0815Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 897 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Dec 130
  Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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