Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1118Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 09/1349Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2555 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (12 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 139 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 015/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 009/010-019/030-019/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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